Why New Hampshire May Surprise Senate


Political pundits have been saying for weeks that the race for Senate rule will narrow For three or four states: Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, Arizona are sometimes thrown in. But is that list too short?

Political history — and a clue of late spending in the race — suggests we should broaden our focus. Republicans have a real chance of defeating Democrats. Maggie Hassan’s seat in New Hampshire.

The background to the competition is simple. Hassan won by 0.1 points in 2016. Democrats this year Money spent to successfully field their preferred opponent during the Republican primary; Dan Bolduc, recommended. He has It went back and forth About that President Joe Biden A formal victory in the 2020 elections.

In post-primary polling, Haasan was seen retaining his seat. A super PAC affiliated with GOP leader Mitch McConnell followed suit To pull its ad Out of the race.

But over the past 10 days, the campaign arm of Senate Republicans He started paying Again.

What exactly is going on?

Several pollsters who do not meet CNN’s standards for publication have published results indicating a tight race or a Republican advantage. A closer matter, however, is what campaigns look like in the state.

New Hampshire is the type of seat you’d expect Republicans to contest, based on the polls we’ve seen nationally. A CNN/SSRS poll Republicans have a four-point lead in general congressional ballots released this week. That’s an 8-point swing toward the Republican Party since the end of the 2020 presidential election.

An 8-point change in New Hampshire from the end of 2020 would put that spot in play. In 2020, Democrats won the presidential election in New Hampshire by seven points.

The competitiveness of the New Hampshire Senate race matches what we’re seeing in other congressional races in New York and New England – About 10 Democratic-held House seats are up for grabs.

In fact, the New Hampshire Senate race is uncompetitive, given all of this data.

It’s less clear how a Republican win in New Hampshire would affect the Senate map.

One view is that New Hampshire will only be won by Republicans if it’s a big election across the country. They won’t win if a nationwide election is near.

Another point is that the polling averages in Arizona (where Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly leads in most polls) and New Hampshire are very similar. The states are located in different parts of the country and are different in terms of population. Sometimes polling errors are regionally and demographically concentrated. It is plausible that a polling error affecting New Hampshire will not affect Arizona in the same way. In such a scenario, Republicans can win New Hampshire, while not winning Arizona.

Either way, it can give us an early guide to how the New Hampshire Senate race is going. Unlike other Senate seats in play, the state does not have early or absentee voting. We should know relatively early on election night what the vote will look like.

Of course, New Hampshire can occasionally march to the beat of its own drum. Even when Republicans easily swept the Senate in 2014, the Democratic Senate. Jean Shaheen retained his seat.

How the Granite State is voting this year — compared to the nation as a whole — won’t be known until at least a few days after Nov. 8 when all the votes are counted. Republicans, however, are welcoming the idea that a seat that looked lost months ago is on the radar three days before Election Day.

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